The New Normal: Texas Housing Market in Transition
After a pandemic-fueled boom that saw prices skyrocket and bidding wars dominate, Texas is shifting from a seller's market to a more balanced landscape. This transition marks a return to healthier market fundamentals.
Home prices continue to rise modestly, with appreciation slowing to historical averages of 3%–3.5% annually—a stark contrast to the double-digit gains of recent years. Inventory is increasing significantly, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power than they've had since 2019.
From Boom to Balance
Market cooling creates opportunities for strategic buyers
Steady Growth
Price appreciation returning to sustainable 3-3.5% annually
Buyer Advantage
Rising inventory shifts negotiating power
What Buyers Should Know: Opportunities & Strategies
Navigate with Confidence
Today's market rewards strategic, informed buyers. Increased inventory means less competition and stronger negotiating leverage than we've seen in years. The power dynamic has shifted in your favor.
01
Timing Matters
Best buying window identified mid-October 2025 (Oct 12–18) for optimal price negotiations based on seasonal trends and seller motivation.
02
Rate Reality Check
Mortgage rates unlikely to drop significantly soon. Focus on aggressive lender shopping, rate float-down options, and available incentives rather than waiting.
03
Builder Incentives
New home surplus means builders offer closing cost credits, upgrades, and rate buydowns. These concessions can save thousands on your purchase.
04
Negotiation Power
Don't be afraid to negotiate repairs, closing costs, or price reductions. Sellers are more motivated and flexible than in recent years.
Sellers' Playbook: Pricing, Patience, and Positioning
Price Strategically
Overpricing risks longer market times and inevitable price cuts, especially in cooling markets like Austin. Start competitive to attract serious buyers quickly.
Presentation is Key
Realistic pricing and professional staging are critical to stand out amid rising inventory. First impressions determine whether buyers schedule showings.
Offer Incentives
Consider concessions like closing cost assistance or home warranties to attract cautious buyers. Small investments can close deals faster.
Suburban Advantage
Sellers in hot suburbs like Frisco, Pflugerville, and Katy can still command premiums, but must watch shifting buyer preferences. Highlight school districts, amenities, and lifestyle benefits to maximize value.
Affordability & Financing: Challenges and Solutions
The Affordability Squeeze
Higher mortgage rates combined with elevated home prices strain affordability, pushing some buyers to explore suburban alternatives or consider smaller homes. The monthly payment shock compared to 2020 rates remains significant.
The "drive till you qualify" trend continues as buyers seek affordable options farther from urban cores, trading commute time for homeownership and space.
Aggressive Rate Shopping
Compare multiple lenders and credit unions. Rate differences of just 0.25% can save thousands over the life of your loan. Don't settle for the first quote.
Refinancing Strategy
Buy now with current rates but plan to refinance when rates drop. This "marry the house, date the rate" approach gets you in the market sooner.
Builder Incentives
Leverage builder-offered rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and upgrade packages. These can effectively lower your monthly payment or initial costs.
Rental Alternative
Strong rental market offers quality alternatives for those priced out of buying. Building equity through rentals allows you to wait for better buying conditions.